Wild Market Week ended peacefully, but more turbulence was vaguely visible

Make the power that drives the global market happy, and happy Friday! Well, that was a week. From Germany’s historic fiscal turnaround to the spinning uncertainty around U.S. tariffs, from U.S. recession warnings to a snowball sell-off on Wall Street, investors have only one minute to breathe.

These are just some news and events that constitute a turbulent week in the world market. The roller coaster next week may be just as bumpy.

There is certainly a feeling that building momentum in many asset classes, perhaps nothing more important than our stocks, despite Friday’s slow exercise, the melancholy seems to be deepening.

President Donald Trump’s “closed” tariff policies (changing every day) are corroding investors, consumers and business sentiment and significantly reducing visibility among company executives and fund managers.

Chairman Jerome Powell nodded on Friday.

Fear of the trade war is the main reason for the recession alarm to sound – the real-time model marked a deep contraction in U.S. GDP in the first quarter, largely due to record trade flaws, which in turn are roughly attributed to a surge in imports before tariffs began.

There is a different, brighter story throughout the Atlantic Ocean. Berlin’s relaxation plan with fiscal support packages, a plan worth up to 20% of GDP has ignited a fire under German stocks, higher bond yields and improved growth forecasts in the euro zone.

Differences between Wall Street and Europe expanded this week but cooled down on Friday. Will I pick it up again next week?

It is not only Germany and European governments that drive fiscal leverage to improve growth. China this week outlined plans to shift its economy to a 5% growth this year, which will largely increase spending, thereby expanding the budget deficit to 4% of historic GDP.

However, Japan’s attention was tilted towards the Bank of Japan ahead of the policy meeting from March 18 to 19. No changes are expected, but more tightening is expected this year as wages and food prices rise. The only question seems to be when.

Major market transfers this week

*The euro has risen to its biggest week in 16 years since the reunification – the biggest spending on defense and infrastructure.

*Germany’s 10-year foreign exchange yield jumped 45 basis points with its biggest weekly increase since reunification.

*United States – Germans’ 10-year yield folds by 35 basis points, the biggest weekly shrink since the December 2008 GFC.

* NASDAQ 100 closed its 200-day moving average for the first time in two years. Nasdaq Composites entered the correction field, down 10% from its December peak.

*Japan’s 10-year yields rose 15 basis points as it has its biggest weekly rise since 2008, sweeping through a wave of bond sales triggered by Berlin and expectations for tightening more Japanese banks.

Germany’s benchmark 10-year yield has sparked news that Europe’s largest economy may be expected to release its largest public spending plan since 1990. It added 35 basis points in the week, the biggest increase since 1990.

Can the market be transferred on Monday?

* Price inflation of Chinese producers and consumers

*Euro Group Meeting, ECB President Christine Lagarde also attended

*German trade, industrial production

Here are some of the best things I’ve read, watched and listened to this week:

1. Recession risk increases all three North American economies in U.S. tariff chaos

2. Layouts bring pain to Trump’s heartland

3. White House Zelenskiy-Trump Conflict Sparks Globally Reconsider U.S. Allies

4. ECB may be afraid of tripping stimulus

5. The turnover cost brings Germany back to Europe’s driving seat

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