Wartime Ukraine’s ‘surprise box’ awaits Trump’s presidency

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War is never far away. Over the Ukrainian capital, the drone of drones is an urban nightmare. Glide bombs crashed into apartment buildings in eastern and southern Ukraine without warning. Military funerals are an everyday event.

As the carnage intensifies, Donald Trump boasts that he can end the fighting in Ukraine within 24 hours. Now that he is president-elect, Ukrainians are seriously considering their next steps in the country’s nearly three-decade war with Russia, where the United States has been Kyiv’s main backer.

In his victory speech earlier Wednesday, Trump declared: “I’m not going to start a war, which seemed to be at least in part a reference to Ukraine. I’m going to stop the war.”

For many Ukrainians, the main concern is whether their government – facing the possibility of being cut off from vital military aid in just months – will be forced to accept a negotiated settlement that would leave parts of the country Leave it to Russian President Vladimir Putin to achieve Ukraine’s goals.

Some Ukrainians worry that if the front lines are frozen as part of the negotiation process, it will only give Putin time to regroup and return.

However, amid the gloom, there are glimmers of hope. Some in Ukraine are wondering whether Trump’s election will shake up a dynamic that has increasingly frustrated Ukraine and its supporters: The U.S. is providing just enough military aid to prevent Ukraine from losing the war, but not enough to actually win. Be victorious on the battlefield.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky walks with then-candidate Donald Trump at Trump Tower in Manhattan in September.

(Julia DeMarie Nicholson/AP)

“It would be great if Trump could end the war like he said he would – let’s see him do it,” said Ksenia Vyshtykailo, a 20-year-old Kiev student . “Maybe his ego was too big and he didn’t want to give up on his promise to end the war in one day.”

Putin congratulated Trump on his win on Thursday and told an international forum in southern Russia that the president-elect’s “desire to restore relations with Russia and help end the crisis in Ukraine is, in my opinion, at least worthy of attention.”

Earlier on Thursday, the Kremlin suggested that Ukraine was failing and that it and its Western backers would have to face that fact.

“When the situation in the zone of military operations goes against the Kiev regime, the West is faced with a choice: continue to fund it and destroy the Ukrainian people, or recognize the current reality and start negotiations,” Sergey said. Shoigu, Russian Security Council President.

For much of the current conflict, which erupted after he left office, Trump has been a leading critic of Ukraine’s desperate struggle against a larger and more powerful aggressor.

He spoke of Putin’s full-scale invasion in February 2022 with something like admiration, calling it “clever.” Trump has repeatedly echoed the Kremlin’s rhetoric on the conflict, claiming responsibility lies with NATO and Ukraine itself.

Vice President-elect Vance has expressed indifference to Ukraine’s fate in the past. During the campaign, he denounced military aid to Ukraine, even aid that provided financial benefits to American companies.

On the surface, the Trump-Vance vote stands in stark contrast to the Biden administration’s unflinching expressions of support.

But in Ukraine, especially in recent months, gratitude for vital support has been intertwined with dissatisfaction with Washington’s timidity — particularly restrictions on the use of long-range weapons against military targets in Russia and its long-standing rejection of certain types of mode of military operations.

Rescue workers in Ukraine are clearing the rubble of a residential building destroyed by Russian air strikes.

Rescue workers clear the rubble of a residential building destroyed by a Russian airstrike in Zaporozhye, Ukraine, on Thursday.

(Katerina Klochko/AP)

This year’s battlefield news has been mostly bad for Ukraine. Its outgunned forces are losing ground in the east of the country, and North Korea’s recent deployment of troops to aid its ally Russia has introduced a new element of instability into the fighting. Attacks by missiles, drones and aerial bombs have killed dozens of civilians in recent weeks.

Against this backdrop, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, even before the presidential vote, sought to lay the groundwork for a working relationship when Trump returns to the White House.

Zelensky has a complicated history with Trump, dating back to the events surrounding the then-president’s first impeachment. The Ukrainian leader was one of the first to congratulate Trump on his “impressive” victory in Tuesday’s vote, and the two later spoke by phone.

Even before the election, Zelensky dismissed defamatory comments from Trump, who once called him “the greatest salesman in the world” for his success in securing U.S. aid. He quickly tried to cast the president-elect’s stance on Ukraine in a positive light.

In a video address to the nation on Wednesday, Zelensky expressed support for Trump’s international approach of “peace through strength.”

“People want certainty, they want freedom, they want a normal life,” Zelensky said. “For us, this is life without Russian aggression, with a strong America, a strong Ukraine and strong allies.”

Longtime observers of the conflict are considering Ukraine’s options.

Vadim Presteko, a career Ukrainian diplomat, said that if Trump does have a plan to end the war, he must understand Ukraine’s “red lines,” including its desire for closer ties with Europe.

“We cannot compromise our core beliefs,” Presteko said.

“We cannot compromise the principles of a democratic society,” he said. “We cannot stand shoulder to shoulder with Russia and surrender again.”

Throughout the war, Ukraine showed remarkable resilience, but people were tired. Next week will mark another bleak milestone: the conflict will reach the 1,000-day mark.

The difficulties are growing. The Ukrainian government says Russia is currently launching about ten times the number of drones into Ukraine than it did last fall. In Kiev, there was only one night since September 1 when no air raid alert was issued from a smartphone app.

Russia launched an eight-hour airstrike on Kiev on Wednesday night, with dozens of drones circling overhead and near-constant sirens making it almost impossible to sleep. Two people were injured in the gunfire, authorities said.

The Russian attack has severely damaged Ukraine’s power grid, and as winter approaches, officials predict Ukraine’s power capacity will be strained, although repairs and support from allies may help the country avoid the massive blackouts seen in previous seasons.

In their high-rise apartment in Kiev, entrepreneur Vita Vigul shows how she and her husband prepare for winter: rechargeable LED light strips, propane-fueled heating panels, a small pellet stove in case the city The central heating system, Europe’s largest, stopped functioning.

“We know what this winter is going to be like,” said Vigur, 52.

Among many practical wartime worries, Trump’s impending presidency was her biggest concern.

“He talked about reducing funding for military operations and support for Ukraine,” she said. “Only God knows what the outcome will be.”

Student Vishti Kailo said there is nothing to do but wait and see what the Trump era brings.

“He was like a surprise box,” she said. “You don’t know what you’re going to get when you open it.”

Special correspondent Ayers reported from Kyiv, and Times staff writer Kim reported from Washington.

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