Seoul – Hours after Donald Trump won election US presidential electiona South Korean political analyst named Cheong Seong-chang sent out an email to his 1,400 subscribers, noting what he sees as a silver lining in the news unresolved The United States has so many allies.
“Trump’s re-election is South Korea’s opportunity to build its own nuclear weapons,” he wrote.
Jang and others in his camp believe South Korea and its allies in the region would be foolish to do so. Dependent on the United States This was an arrangement established in 1953 after the Korean War that gave the United States operational control of South Korean forces.
South Korea briefly ran a nuclear weapons program in the 1970s before shutting it down and signing the international nuclear non-proliferation treaty in exchange for America’s “expanded nuclear deterrence” – Washington’s pledge to use its own nuclear arsenal to protect South Korea from such nuclear weapons.
Efforts to revive the policy gained traction during Trump’s first term as he frequently complained that America’s allies were not playing their part.
2020, Trump Already ordered Withdrew about 12,000 US troops from Germany, calling the European country “illegal”.
“Germany is not paying for this,” he said at the time. “We don’t want to be fools anymore.”
Trump also dismissed US-ROK Alliance As an unnecessary drag, he suggested during his first presidential campaign that he might encourage Seoul to build its own nuclear arsenal — a departure from Washington’s longstanding nonproliferation stance.
As president, he Cancel He considered joint military exercises between the two countries “extremely expensive” and told aides he wanted “the complete withdrawal of U.S. troops from South Korea,” according to his former defense secretary’s 2022 memoir. Mark Esper.
In an October interview with the Economic Club of Chicago, Trump called South Korea a “money machine” that did not pay enough to maintain U.S. troops stationed within its borders.
Data from the U.S. Congressional Research Service shows that the United States has 28,500 troops stationed in South Korea, accounting for 40% to 50% of the total cost, and Seoul contributes about $1 billion annually. Trump claimed he would make South Korea pay $10 billion.
His victory in this week’s election has raised doubts about America’s commitment to allies in the region.
“Distrust of the United States is growing,” said Chang, founder of the Korea Nuclear Strategy Forum, a group of 50 analysts, former military officials and academics who all agree South Korea should acquire nuclear weapons.
Another reason driving their actions is fear of North Korea, which is developing its own nuclear weapons in defiance of international demands. North Korea has recently been strengthening ties with Russia as long-time ally China becomes wary of its nuclear ambitions. send troops Join the fight against Ukraine.
in a poll According to a survey by the Korea Institute for National Unification, a government-funded think tank, 66% of South Koreans said their country should have nuclear weapons if North Korea does not disarm.
The “strategic elites” in South Korea—the scholars, legislators, and government officials who have the most direct influence on national policies— poll An April survey by the Center for Strategic and International Studies found that just over a third supported nuclear weapons.
But more than half of opponents said they might change their minds if the United States withdraws troops or raises the price of U.S. protection, as Trump has threatened.
Few doubt that South Korea, which has an advanced civilian nuclear industry, is capable of developing nuclear weapons.
But many experts say it won’t be easy or quick.
“Building the infrastructure and capabilities to produce one’s own fissile material would take up to several years, as well as the time required to design, test and manufacture weapons and compatible delivery systems,” said Jenny Towne, a senior researcher at the institute. Washington think tank.
“There could also be significant political battles with the public over the siting, testing or storage of such materials, let alone the creation and storage of warheads to form an actual arsenal.”
More importantly, nuclear weapons first require South Korea to withdraw nuclear non-proliferation treaty – Tang said the move could lead to international sanctions.
Perhaps more importantly, it would anger China and could lead to a regional arms race.
But Zhang believes that in today’s unpredictable world order, the idea is not so far-fetched.
“A lot has changed since the war in Ukraine, and the nonproliferation regime once managed by China, Russia and the United States has been significantly weakened,” he said.
“Who is going to tell South Korea that it cannot have nuclear weapons for its own survival?”
