Washington—— President-elect Trump’s election victory, coupled with the Republican takeover of the Senate, could extend conservative control of the Supreme Court for another two decades.
For much of the past four years, progressives have focused on proposals to expand the court or impose term limits on sitting justices. These ideas for reshaping the courts depend on Democrats winning overwhelming power in the White House and Senate.
Instead, Republicans will be tasked with maintaining conservative control of the high court long after Trump leaves Washington.
The two oldest justices are also the most conservative jurists. Clarence Thomas, 76, joined the court 33 years ago and will become the longest-serving justice in the court’s history in early 2028. . Alito Jr.) is 74 years old.
If Vice President Kamala Harris wins the election, there is little chance they will choose to retire and have the seat filled by liberals.
But conservative analysts believe Alito or Thomas or both are likely to retire during Trump’s second term.
Ed Whelan, a frequent National Review writer, said he expected Alito to be the first to leave.
“I certainly don’t have inside knowledge. But I would make a big bet,” he said.
He believes the death of liberal Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg while Trump was in office will convince Thomas and Alito that they shouldn’t stay too long. During President Obama’s final term, she resisted calls from liberals to step down, betting that Hillary Clinton would succeed him in 2016.
The retirement of Alito or Thomas would allow Trump to appoint one or two much younger conservatives, likely chosen from among the federal appeals court judges he appointed during his first term.
Once confirmed, they could sit on it for 30 years.
If Democrats retain control of the Senate, they may block Trump nominees they view as extreme. But Trump and his legal advisers won’t face that obstacle.
During his first term, Trump appointed three conservative judges with the help of Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.).
When Justice Antonin Scalia died in early 2016, McConnell blocked Obama from filling his seat.
In early 2017, Trump selected Neil M. Gorsuch, 57, to fill Scalia’s seat. Ginsburg’s death just weeks before the 2020 election cleared the way for McConnell to quickly appoint Justice Amy Coney Barrett, 52, to the bench.
They joined Judge Brett M. Kavanaugh, 59, in voting to overturn abortion rights in 2022 and in July granting Trump and other presidents broad immunity from criminal charges for their conduct in office. .
The three of them are expected to serve another 20 years on the field.
The sixth conservative chief justice, John G. Roberts Jr., will turn 70 in January. Justice Sonia Sotomayor, the oldest of the court’s three liberal justices, celebrated her 70th birthday in June.
While neither is considered a likely candidate to step down within the next four years, if either of them retires, Trump could appoint another young conservative.
President Biden is leaving office with the historic but unique appointment of Ketanji Brown Jackson, the first black female Supreme Court justice.
