In the coming days, Russian President Vladimir Putin will shake hands with a number of world leaders, including Chinese President Xi Jinping, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and Iranian President Masoud Pezesh Kian.
They will attend a meeting of the BRICS group of developing economies in the Russian city of Kazan on Tuesday, defying predictions that the war in Ukraine and an international arrest warrant against Putin will turn him into a pariah.
The alliance, which aims to counterbalance the Western-dominated world order, initially included Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa but began to expand rapidly this year. Iran, Egypt, Ethiopia, the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia joined in January; Turkey, Azerbaijan and Malaysia formally applied, and a number of other countries have expressed a desire to become members.
Russian officials already consider it a huge success. Putin’s foreign policy assistant Yuri Ushakov said that 32 countries have confirmed their participation, and more than 20 of them will send heads of state.
Ushakov said that Putin will hold about 20 bilateral meetings and that the summit may become “the largest foreign policy event in history” held on Russian soil.
Kremlin Optics and Deals
Analysts say the Kremlin wants both to stand shoulder to shoulder with global allies amid ongoing tensions with the West and to negotiate deals with them to shore up the Russian economy and the practicality of its war effort. For other participants, it was an opportunity to amplify their voices and narratives.
“The beauty of BRICS is that it doesn’t impose a lot of obligations on you,” said Alexander Gabuyev, director of the Carnegie Russia and Eurasia Center.
“Being part of the BRICS, there are really not many strings attached. At the same time, you may encounter interesting opportunities, including more meeting time with all these leaders. For Putin, Gabuev said Personally, the summit is important because it shows that Western efforts to isolate him have failed.
He said the gathering would prove to the country and abroad that “Russia is indeed an important player and is leading this new organization that will end the dominance of the West – this is his personal narrative”.
The Kremlin will be able to discuss expanding trade and bypassing Western sanctions with major players such as India and China. Gabuev said India is an important market for Russian goods, while China is a country from which Moscow hopes to acquire dual-use and various military-related goods.
Russia also wants more countries to participate in the payments system project, which would be an alternative to global banking information network SWIFT, allowing Moscow to trade with its partners without fear of sanctions.
“The idea in Russia is that if you create a platform that has China, Russia, India, Brazil and Saudi Arabia among many other countries that are important partners for the United States, the United States will not be prepared to go after that platform and do It imposes sanctions, “Gabuev said.
Iran and China’s goals
Russia is also expected to sign a “comprehensive strategic partnership” treaty with Iran, reinforcing the increasingly close ties between Moscow and Tehran.
After invading Ukraine, Iran supplied hundreds of drones to Moscow and helped Russia begin production. Moscow and Tehran have denied the Iranian drone deliveries, which have exposed Ukraine’s infrastructure to a steady stream of long-range drone attacks.
Iran, in turn, needs advanced Russian weapons, such as long-range air defense systems and fighter jets, to help defend against possible Israeli attacks. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov declined to comment when asked whether the treaty included mutual military assistance.
For China, the BRICS is one of several international organizations, along with the security-focused Shanghai Cooperation Organization, through which it seeks to promote alternatives to the U.S.-led world order.
Lin Heli, senior China researcher at the Jamestown Foundation, said that Xi Jinping has promoted the expansion of BRICS and Kazakhstan Mountain will consolidate the economic, technological and military ties of the enlarged BRICS.
Lam said Beijing and Moscow also wanted to see whether the new international trade currency could “challenge the so-called hegemony of the US dollar.”
The summit will allow Xi Jinping and Putin to showcase their close relationship. The two countries, which announced an “unrestricted” partnership weeks before Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022, have met at least twice this year, at the SCO summit in Beijing in May and in Kazakhstan in July.
While they will continue to present a united front, experts are watching for subtle signs that Xi is distancing himself from Putin over the war.
“While Putin hopes that China-Russia relations will remain as good as ever, Xi Jinping may also want to send a signal to the West and others that Beijing is officially neutral in Russia’s war in Ukraine and is not a formal ally of Moscow,” he said. Eva Seiwert is a foreign policy and security expert at the Mercator Institute for China Studies in Berlin.
“This is critical to conveying China’s image as a serious and legitimate peacemaker in the Russia-Ukraine conflict.”
Balancing act between India and Turkey
It is expected that the meeting between Modi and Putin may lead to a rebalancing of relations between the two countries. Western friends hope India will be more active in persuading Moscow to end the war. Modi avoided condemning Russia but emphasized a peaceful solution.
New Delhi considers Moscow a proven Cold War-era partner, cooperating in defence, oil, nuclear energy and space, although Russia has closer ties with India’s main rival China.
Their meeting will be the second in as many months. Modi visited Russia in July, met President Volodymyr Zelensky in Ukraine in August, and traveled to the United States to meet President Joe Biden in September.
Raja Mohan, a professor at the Institute of South Asia Studies in Singapore, said, “India cannot simply abandon Russia because it has deep defense ties with Russia, regional power balance issues and the logic of multi-party alliances.”
“At the same time, it also builds and develops relations with the United States and the West, because the logic of India’s major economic development and technological growth depends on partnerships.” India and Brazil view the BRICS primarily from an economic perspective to promote greater power in the international system. An equitable distribution, while “China and Russia view it more as a geopolitical forum,” said Chietigi Bajpayee, who studies South Asia at Chatham House.
Fallon of the Center for Russian, European and Asian Studies said India and Brazil also don’t want to “be pulled into China’s gravitational orbit.”
Another major player is Türkiye, which has applied to join the BRICS grouping. At the same time, the NATO member and EU candidate has become increasingly frustrated with the West. Türkiye’s EU membership talks have been deadlocked since 2016 due to a dispute with Cyprus and concerns about human rights.
Türkiye’s relationship with Washington has been tense since it withdrew from the F-35 fighter jet program after purchasing a Russian missile defense system. Erdogan also accused the United States and other Western allies of being “complicit” in Israel’s military operations in Gaza.
Gunur Tol, director of the Turkey program at the U.S.-based Middle East Institute, said BRICS membership would help Erdogan “strengthen his strength” at a time when relations with the West are at a low point.
He said that middle powers like Turkey “try to get more benefits from both camps by being between the two camps, by having a foot in each camp.”