Perspectives of countries where Trump’s victory does matter

News of Donald Trump’s return to the White House made headlines around the world.

His so-called “America First” foreign policy could lead to the United States no longer being involved in conflict zones around the world.

Five BBC journalists assess the impact the measure could have on their regions.

Author: James Waterhouse, Ukraine correspondent, Kiev

“Don’t try to predict Trump’s actions. No one knows how he will act.”

Remarks by a Ukrainian lawmaker reflect the political challenges facing Kyiv. There are widespread concerns about what a Trump victory would mean for future support in the United States.

The Republican has vowed to end the war within a day and has repeatedly criticized U.S. military aid to Ukraine. What he can do now is anyone’s guess.

“He could ask Putin to freeze the war and he would say ‘OK’,” said one frontline soldier. “This is the worst-case scenario because in a few years the Russians will advance again and possibly destroy us.”

“The second scenario is that Putin refuses,” he said. “It’s possible that Trump will react aggressively. That’s a more hopeful scenario.”

Ukraine hopes this means further U.S. military support in the event of a possible defeat for Ukraine.

For those close to the front lines fed up with Russian aggression, Trump is seen as a respite.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, who Trump once called “the greatest salesman in history,” sent a congratulatory message early.

He spoke of the political and economic opportunities that partnerships can offer and hoped for continued struggle in return.

There is another ingredient.

Trump will not only have to consider further military support for Ukraine, but also how or whether to respond to North Korea’s growing involvement in Russia’s invasion.

Author: Steve Rosenberg, Russia Editor, Moscow

You might think the Kremlin would be excited to have Trump back in the White House.

After all, he avoided criticizing Vladimir Putin during the campaign. Kamala Harris also called the Russian president a “brutal dictator.”

Trump also questioned the scale of U.S. military aid to Kiev.

But publicly, the Kremlin went to great lengths to give the impression that it was not thrilled with Trump’s victory.

“I don’t know of any plans [for President Putin] Congratulations to Trump,” Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said. “Don’t forget this [America] is an ‘unfriendly country’ that is directly or indirectly involved in the war against our country.

The drop in expectations is a result of the outcome of Trump’s first term: The Kremlin had high hopes that a Trump presidency would transform U.S.-Russian relations. This is not the case.

Still, at the political discussion club I attended in the hills of Sochi, top Russian political scientists seemed to be anticipating a Trump sequel.

One expert told me he thinks the United States will “exit” its status as a global superpower under Trump.

Another said the US election was consistent with the Kremlin’s “general vision of the world” in which “liberal globalism has exhausted its effectiveness”.

By Paul Kirby, European Digital Editor

When dozens of European leaders from the European Union and beyond gather in Budapest on Thursday, those on the right will celebrate Donald Trump’s electoral victory, but others will ask themselves what happens next.

Hungarian host and Trump ally Viktor Orban first posted his delighted news on Facebook: “It’s in the bag!”

But for many other EU leaders, Trump 2.0 could herald trouble on security, trade and climate change.

Within minutes of congratulating the Republican candidate, French President Emmanuel Macron said he had agreed with German Chancellor Olaf Scholz to work together “to build a more united, stronger, and democratic society in the new context.” A more sovereign Europe”.

German Foreign Minister Annalena Berbock provided this background. Fresh back from Ukraine, she said Europeans must now “think big and make massive investments in European security” with the United States as a partner.

Polish and Nato counterpart Radoslaw Sikorski said he had been in contact with Trump’s top team and agreed that “Europe must urgently take greater responsibility for its security”.

The prospect of high U.S. tariffs on EU imports is also heavy. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen congratulated Trump but gave a timely reminder that “millions of jobs and billions of dollars of trade” depended on their transatlantic relationship.

By Lucy Williamson, Middle East Correspondent, Jerusalem

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu was one of the first to congratulate Trump, having previously called him the best friend Israel has ever had in the White House.

Trump has previously won support by scrapping the U.S.-Iran nuclear deal that Israel opposes. He also recognized Jerusalem as Israel’s capital, thus upending decades of U.S. policy.

Michael Oron, Israel’s former ambassador to the United States, said Trump’s first term was “a model” as far as Israel is concerned. But he added: “We have to be very clear about who Donald Trump is and what he stands for.”

Oren pointed out that the former president believed that the war was costly and that Trump urged Israel to end the Gaza war as soon as possible.

“If Donald Trump came into office in January and said, ‘OK, you have a week to end this war,’ Netanyahu would have to respect that.”

In Gaza, where Israeli forces have been battling the Palestinian group Hamas, desperation has narrowed the focus of some residents.

Trump “had some strong promises,” said Ahmed, whose wife and son both died when their home was destroyed. “We hope he can help and bring peace.”

Mamdu, another displaced resident, said he didn’t care who won the U.S. election, he just wanted help.

Author: Laura Bicker, China Correspondent, Beijing

China is bracing for the return of Donald Trump, amid fears his presidency will spark a new trade war.

As president, Trump imposed tariffs on more than $300 billion in Chinese imports. This time he said tariffs may exceed 60%.

Beijing will not stand aside and retaliate. But China’s economy is already in trouble and it will not fight a second protracted trade war.

However, President Xi may see four more years of Trump as an opportunity.

The Biden administration has spent the past four years building friendships with Asian countries such as South Korea, Japan, the Philippines and Vietnam — all in an effort to contain China.

Trump’s “America First” policy favors transactions over such diplomacy. For example, as president, he asked South Korea for more funding to continue hosting U.S. troops in the country.

There is no doubt that China wants to challenge the US-led world order. Beijing has forged alliances with the so-called emerging economies of the Global South.

Trump risks alienating U.S. allies in Asia, as he did during his previous term.

If that happens, Xi Jinping may see an opportunity to portray himself as a stable global partner.