The state’s National Democratic Union (NDA) government expanded its cabinet to fill vacant positions ahead of Bihar’s parliamentary elections in October or November this year. It seems that the appointment is intended to balance caste and regional aspirations to promote the prospects of the alliance. Although all seven ministers belong to the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), emphasizing its importance in the alliance, the big question mark is whether the party will use Nitish Kumar as its chief minister or dulling it.
Age and health
Despite Nitish’s poor health, Janata Dal (Manchester United) insisted on naming him as the chief minister candidate. Given the controversial issuance of the invoice and the trend of Nitish jumping ship, the next few months could trigger Bihar. Cabinet expansion also sparked rumors that national elections could be completed in advance.
The new BJP ministers swear by Sanjay Saraogi (Darbhanga), Sunil Kumar (Biharsharif), Jibesh Kumar (Jale), Raju Kumar Singh (Sahebganj), Moti Lal Prasad (Riga), Krishna Kumar Mantu (Krishna Kumar Mantu (Amnour) and Vijay Kumar (sikijay kumar) (sikti) Among these seven leaders, four belong to the OBC community, one belongs to the EBC, two of which are from the upper caste, which is the core voting segment of the Saffron Party.
With this expansion, the cabinet is as strong as 37. These include the Chief Minister, 22 leaders from the BJP, 13 leaders from JD (U), one from Awam Morcha (HAM) in Hindustan and one independent. This is proportional to the overall advantage of the House coalition party: 84 members from the BJP and 48 members from the JD (U).
Caste calculation
Nitish’s cabinet is now 28% representative of the OBC community, while SCS has 19%. This is largely consistent with the population share in both groups. However, the economic backward class (EBC) and most backward class (MBC) remain low: when they make up 36% of the state’s population, only 19%. This is mainly because about 11% of Muslims in the state are classified as EBC/MBC, and there is only one Muslim minister in the entire cabinet.
Meanwhile, leaders in the general category account for 31% of the cabinet, which is twice their population. Four ministers came from the 15-seat Damisliver area. The NDA won 97 of these games in 2020, with the latest appointment aiming to further consolidate its base in the region.
In 2020, both leagues received about 37% of the vote. However, NDA received 11,150 votes than Mahagathbandhan led by Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD). It had 3 more than the simpler most in 125 of 243 seats, and eventually formed the government.
Center consideration
This year, Bihar is also expected to hold strict elections. The key question before the BJP is whether it will declare Nitish Kumar as the league’s chief minister. If it pulls Maharashtra in Bihar and decides a name after the result, the position can participate in the largest political party in the league based on the performance of the election. This is crucial because before participating in the polls in 2020, the BJP announced that Nitish would be the chief minister, regardless of the seats in the elections of the parties. The BJP fulfilled its promise despite receiving nearly twice the seat of JD(U). Cadres and supporters from all sides do not appreciate this.
When Nitise does one Gharwapsi He was still retained as BJP’s chief minister a few days before the 2024 election, with less than a majority and needed to support JDU’s 12 MLAs in Parliament. Nitish could use it as a bargaining chip in the upcoming state elections.
JD (U) has been jittering after BJP’s Maharashtra move, and he has been asking the NDA to immediately announce Nitish as a chief minister candidate. Any delay can complicate things given the buzz over the 74-year-old leader’s health. Furthermore, the party buzz has named Nishit’s son Nishant as his successor, who is just growing up.
Regional parties in India are mainly controlled by families. Questions have been raised about JD(U)’s future after Nitish, Nitish’s future after Nitish, with 12-15% of his voting share attributed to Kurmi, EBC/MBC and Mahadalit communities.
Patchwork politics?
Can the BJP be able to SHIV SENA on JD(U) before polls, forcing leadership changes and installing the BJP chief minister? RJD Supreme Lalu Yadav is already making a suggestion to Nitish to join Mahagathbandhan, although the latter has publicly rejected the proposal. Only six months before the polls, the BJP may want to avoid such patchwork and politics and play its cards after the election results.
Talk to the seat assignment with JD (U) will also be tricky. In 2020, the party participated in 115 seats, while the BJP competed for 110 seats, with Vikassheel Insaan Party (VIP) at 11, while the Ham held seven. But, this time, there is another combination: Chirag Paswan’s Lok Janshakti Party (LJP). BJP cited its current strength and hopes to compete in seats that are better than JD(U). But Nitish is unlikely to be dissatisfied with this, as it will directly affect his prospects in the post-match negotiations.
“PK” factor
A range of moving parts will define this year’s Bihar election. There are also “PK” or Prashant Kishor factors. While 15% of voters want to see him as chief minister, his Jan Suraaj party won 10% of the vote in a side note held last year. In what way will the “PK” strike go? Muslims in Mahagathbandhan – Yadav Voting Bank, or NDA’s Upper Caste and OBC/EBC Base? As they said, the answer was blowing in the wind.
(Amitabh Tiwari is a political strategist and commentator. In his avatar, he is a company and investment banker.)
Disclaimer: These are the author’s personal opinions
