On a recent Tuesday in Sacramento, Alexa Sosa Nunez put on her AirPods, folded her printed pages, took a deep breath, and spoke on behalf of Democratic congressional candidate Rudy Rudy Salas made the first call.
The 50-year-old woman who answered the phone said immigration was her top priority this election.
Sosa Nunez, who works for the New California Action Fund community voter mobilization group, told her Salas supports a path to citizenship for undocumented workers. Salas is running against Republican Rep. David Valadao for control of California’s 22nd Congressional District in San Joaquin Valley.
“Can we trust your vote?” she asked.
“Oh, yes,” the woman replied. “I have family – they need something. We need to do something so they can get their papers here.
Some of California’s most competitive congressional races are in areas with large Latino populations. In the 13th Congressional District, centered in Merced County and stretching from Lathrop to Coalinga, 50 percent of eligible voters are Latino. In the 22nd Congressional District, which includes parts of Kern, Kings and Tulare counties, the rate is 59%. In the 27th Congressional District, which spans northern Los Angeles County from Santa Clarita to the Kern County line, the rate is 33%.
The races for these seats, currently held by Republicans but all won by President Joe Biden in 2020, will be critical in determining which party will control Congress next year and how much the next president will accomplish while in the White House.
If Democrats flip four seats held by Republicans nationally, they will take back control of the U.S. House of Representatives. In California, where there are six tight congressional races, victory may come down to who appeals to the majority of Latino residents.
Latino voters are an increasingly influential and diverse group who draw their power from multiple sources. For example, Mexican-Americans and Cuban-Americans have very different voting trends. But in California, a poll of 1,000 Latino voters released Wednesday by the Latino Community Foundation found that Democratic challengers in the 13th, 22nd and 27th Congressional Districts all had wide leads over their Republican opponents, with about a quarter Voters have yet to decide.
Polls show that in these areas, Latino voters overwhelmingly list cost of living, economic and employment concerns as the top issues facing the country.
“Latinx voters in California’s competitive districts will play a critical role in determining the balance of power in the U.S. House of Representatives,” said Julian Castro, CEO of the Latino Community Foundation.
Matt Barreto is the founder of the Institute for Latino Policy and Politics at UCLA, a political polling firm that works for the California Democratic Party. But it’s up to the candidates to translate that into votes.
Barreto warned that these Democratic candidates must overcome historical underinvestment in areas like the San Joaquin Valley, which has resulted in Latino voter registration and turnout being lower than other racial and ethnic groups.
Campaigns and political groups are getting creative to appeal to Latino voters. George Whitesides, a Democrat who is vying to represent District 27, held a “ballots and tacos” event in Palmdale on Sunday.
Since 2022, the California Republican Party has opened three Latino community centers in Palmdale, Bakersfield and Merced. of other community centers have closed in places like Connecticut and Connecticut.
The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee hosted a boxing vigil party for Mexican boxer Canelo Alvarez in Atwater last month.
The Republican National Committee has a Latino regional engagement coordinator in Bakersfield, who was born in Mexico and became a U.S. citizen in March.
Those efforts — and the energy surrounding the presidential election — appear to be helping the campaign win over voters. Rep. Adam Gray, a Democrat trying to unseat Rep. John Duarte (R-Modesto) in the 13th Congressional District, said the campaign has more volunteers than any other in the past 12 years. many. Salas said he is on track to raise twice as much as he did last cycle, when he lost to Varadao by 3 percentage points in 2022.
LIBRE Initiative Action, a national conservative Latino political organization, is helping Duarte and other California Republican candidates. LIBRE President Daniel Garza said both parties are taking notice after eight Latino Republicans flipped blue House seats across the country in the last election.
“I think, for the most part, the Republican Party has done a very inadequate job of connecting with the Latino community,” he said. “That’s not the case anymore. What you’re seeing is more investment. Right-of-center groups like ours are pushing different conversations about policy in different directions and pointing to different candidates. So the race is on. .
Garza said in a close race like Duarte, who won by just 564 votes in 2022, every vote counts.
That fact isn’t taken lightly by locals like Eliseo Gamiño, who heads the Central Valley Leadership Roundtable, a coalition of Latino community leaders and elected officials. Earlier this year, the group issued its first Republican endorsement, backing Duarte over his opponent Gray.
But it’s not a ringing endorsement.
“Which is the least worst? -Which one is the least worst? he said. “Because none of them are ideal candidates.”
Gamineo noted that Gray’s ad features longtime Merced County Sheriff Vern Warnke, who has previously cooperated with immigration authorities seeking to detain jail inmates for deportation. Immigrants who are not incarcerated are turned over to federal authorities past two yearsAccording to Merced Focus.
Gamineo compared it to an ad from Duarte’s campaign that showed a Latino family playing Mexican bingo draw lots. It’s clear Duarte knows he needs Latino voters, he said, and many in the community are frustrated with Democrats’ inability to pass immigration reform.
“Hispanics don’t forget this,” Gamineo said of the chief. “Duarte has done more to talk about bringing families out of the shadows. You have to give him credit.
Last year, Duarte broke with most Republicans by voting against the hardline Border Security Act, citing a desire to protect Silicon Valley farmworkers who lack U.S. citizenship. Last year, he co-sponsored a bill that would create a path to permanent residency for immigrants who arrived in the United States as children. Gray said he supports comprehensive immigration reform that would include a path to citizenship. As a California lawmaker, he voted for a 2017 bill that prohibited landlords from disclosing tenants’ immigration status.
Earlier this month, the Mendota Chamber of Commerce hosted a Spanish-language debate for Duarte and Gray, but only Duarte attended. Gray said he didn’t receive the invitation until a few days ago, and when his campaign said he couldn’t attend, the chamber didn’t offer to reschedule.
“My opponent is running a campaign that is trying to mislead voters,” Gray said. “They are still trying to integrate into the Latino community even though he helped repeal the compromise immigration reform bill.”
The bipartisan 2024 border bill, opposed by many progressives for not including a path to citizenship, failed in the Senate after Trump pressured Republicans to drop support . The bill never came to a vote in the House.
Duarte spokesman Duane Dichiara said his campaign is focused on appealing to Latinos, who he says are moving rapidly to the right politically.
“Democrats are ill-prepared because all they want to talk about is immigration and racism,” DiChiara said. “Most Hispanics don’t think we are racist, and most Hispanics want to secure the border.”
Money and attention are plentiful as swing-district races in California could decide which party controls the House.
The Democratic National Committee announced last week that it had made a six-figure investment in a media campaign targeting diverse constituencies that include Latinos in California’s competitive House races. The top House Republican super PAC spent more than $4 million on television ads last week to help Republican candidates in competitive California races, including $250,000 in Spanish-language ads.
Battleground California, the first statewide independent spending coalition targeting competitive races in areas with higher shares of Latino, Asian and black voters, has spent $4 million toward Democrats’ goal of taking control of Congress.
However, campaigns in California’s swing seats are based more on local issues and the candidates’ personal appeals.
“Latino voters are Americans who love this country and deserve security like every American,” said Rep. Mike Garcia (R-Santa Clarita). “This is not an ‘outreach’ program for my campaign because I am actually part of this community.”
Salas, the son of farm workers, hopes to become the first Latino to represent the Central Valley in Congress. His campaign worked with organizers from the United Farm Workers to help him connect with hard-to-reach voters.
“I tell people, look, I’m just a Central Valley kid. I used to get up early in the morning and go work in the fields and construction with my dad,” he said. “We know we have the support of the community and it’s just about getting them to turn in their ballots.”
Back in the New California community, Sosa Nunez, the woman who phone-banked on Salas’ behalf, was transferred to another constituent. This time, a 22-year-old woman answered in Spanish. Sosa Nunez told her that Salas supported women’s reproductive rights, including the right to abortion.
“I don’t approve of this procedure,” the woman responded.
Sosa Nunez asked the woman how much power she thought her vote would have in making a difference in the community.
“there is nothing,” she said. There isn’t any.
Sosa Nunez told her that one-third of voters in the 22nd Congressional District are Latino.
“Our votes can really influence elections,” she said. “I recommend you do your research — and then vote.”