How climate change affects wheat production in India

In 2024-2025, the government’s wheat procurement record was 26.6 million tons. While this exceeds the 26.2 million tonnes purchased in 2023-2024, it targets less than the 34.15 million tonnes target.

In May 2022, India banned wheat exports. This is in a country where Russia invaded Ukraine’s major wheat, which destroyed international food and cereal supplies and triggered global price increases.

Calories and wheat

Sandeep Mahato of Chennai MS Swaminathan Research Foundation (MSSRF) told Climate variability is not a new phenomenon in itself, but it caught our attention when crop growth season overlaps with heatwave conditions. Hindu.

A 2022 study International Journal of Molecular Science It is noted that the increasing global warming is causing thermal stresses that “trigger significant changes in the biological and developmental processes of wheat, resulting in a decrease in cereal yield and cereal quality.”

According to the authors of this article, it is known that heat stress can be differentiated by changing the “physical biological biochemical processes such as photosynthesis, respiration, oxidative damage, stress-induced activity of hormones, proteins and antioxidant enzymes, the relationship between water and nutrition, and the measurement of the differences in attributes (bioma) (both biomass) (both can be reduced), all can be different, all can be different, all can be highly different,’

Wheat growth stage

According to the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, the definition of wheat growth phase is defined according to the development of different organs of the plant. This can broadly divide it into four stages:

(i) Germination that appears: This involves the growth of the seedlings until the seedlings pass through the soil surface and the first leaf appears.

(ii) Growth Phase 1: Steps from appearance to biridge. Buds appear, and plant growth changes from producing primitive leaves to flowering structures called Spikelets.

(iii) Growth Phase 2: This phase goes from biridge to flower. This is the transition from nutrition to reproductive stage of plants. This is also one of the stages when plants are relatively susceptible to heat stress.

(iv) Growth Phase 3: This phase includes the cereal filling period from inflorescence to mature.

Optimal temperatures required for different stages of growing wheat. |Picture source: doi: 10.3390/ijms23052838

According to experts, the real problem begins with the ocean. The Indian Ocean warms at an accelerated rate. A 2024 study conducted by scientists from the Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology in Pune pointed out that the Indian Ocean may be in a “nearly permanent heat wave” mainly due to global warming at the end of the century.

The study adds that the frequency of ocean heat waves is expected to increase tenfold, from the current average of 20 days per year to 220-250 days per year.

The warmth of the Indian Sea will change the monsoon in India, which most agriculture in the country relies on. For example, Kharif or summer crop season begins and ends, which inevitably delays the beginning of the rabbi season.

Wheat is a rabies crop. If sowing begins very late, the later stages of plant growth will coincide with the early heat waves in India. February 2025 is warmer than usual, and a similar trend is expected in March. This is also the peak season for wheat harvest, and the ideal temperature should not exceed 30ºC in the later stages of plant growth.

“High temperatures cause early blooming and faster maturity, which shortens the cereal filling period. This results in lighter cereals with lower starch accumulation and reduces total wheat yields. Hindu.

“Extreme heat causes wheat to develop higher protein content, but lower starch, making the cereal more difficult and affecting milling quality. Farmers may face lower market prices due to reduced weight and quality issues of the cereal,” he added.

Nikhil Goveas, chief climate adviser at the Environmental Defense Foundation, told Nikhil Goveas that the low reserve price of Nikhil Goveas would also make farmers desperate and lead to excessive fertilizer use. Hindu. “The higher but inefficient use of resources is another cascade of the caloric pressure challenge in crops.”

Adaptation and relief

Food security is at the heart of the adaptation and mitigation strategies used by officials to reduce heat stress in wheat crops.

“Wheat is important to farmers because it can be consumed immediately, so a portion of the produce is always preserved for household consumption,” Goveas said.

Farmers rely on older varieties of crops because accessibility is a challenge, with issues related to supply chains, costs, and more. Climate-rich varieties are important, but they are not silver warhead solutions to the challenge, Goveas added: “The problem is a deeper challenge to the climate crisis in our food system. The planet is getting warmer. We need to consider not only one crop, but all crops: schedule the time correctly, keep our information and weather systems updated to understand the desired knowledge and mitigate the challenges.”

“The bigger problem here is being able to ensure food security,” said Mahato of Chennai MSSRF. “We must focus on addressing the income gap. This has to do with the effective management of resources such as fertilizers, pest control, etc.”

According to Mahato, immediate policy support for farmers’ response to the effects of heat stress in wheat may be in the form of compensation, but more long-term solutions need to be incorporated into our agricultural practices.

“Changes in agricultural management strategies support early seeding of early seeding crops in areas with early heat waves, or introducing increased yield varieties with shorter growth durations, which are some policy changes that can reduce the thermal pressure on wheat,” he added. “There is no compromise on improving production, which should be the core goal of adapting to the problem.”

“Decision makers must take a multi-pronged approach that combines scientific research, financial support, technical solutions and farmers’ education to protect wheat crops from increased heat stress,” said JHA. “This includes promoting heat-resistant wheat varieties, adjusting seeding dates, financial support and crop insurance, and weather monitoring and consultation.”