Lord Manderson had been walking around London for months, hinting that he did not want to be appointed ambassador to Washington and saying he did not want to become a hotel manager so late in his career.
His feigned lack of interest in leading a succession of mid-level ministers at the British Embassy, a 96-year-old recently restored Lutyens Building, is typical of the smoke and mirrors surrounding his potential appointment.
At another point, it was suggested that Foreign Secretary David Lamy blocked Mandelson’s appointment, fearing that a key role in his job – directing the special relationship during Trump’s second term – would in fact be eliminated. deprivation.
Lamy has already lost responsibility for EU negotiations and had to accept Blair’s appointment of Jonathan Powell as national security adviser, so tolerating a third cut to his portfolio may be too much.
Finally, if Lamy ever had such misgivings – and the evidence is thin – he was old enough to see the benefits of appointing the first political ambassador to Washington in 50 years.
A celebrity politician, rather than a traditional diplomat, could allow Britain’s sometimes lonely voice to be heard amid the din of Washington.
There are also unspoken dangers in appointments. It has been suggested that if Kamala Harris is appointed, Manderson or former Labor foreign secretary David Miliband will get the job because they are natural ideological soul mates, but if Trump wins, a A low-key professional diplomat will handle relations.
Instead, Keir Starmer took a risk and appointed Manderson.
Although Starmer was one of the few elected MPs invited to his wedding to his long-term partner Reynaldo Avila da Silva, the pair are not personally close.
If anything, Starmer has maintained some distance from Manderson, but the former Labor cabinet minister still has access through Starmer’s chief of staff and close Mandelson ally Morgan Mackles Wynne has full access to Downing Street.
One Labor source said: “It’s a strange appointment, not very Keir-like. It doesn’t feel right, but it doesn’t feel right now. It feels very Morgan-like.
A famous internal paper written by McSweeney in 2021 about how Starmer must “embrace the inevitable conflict” with the party’s left wing was heavily influenced by Mandelson’s ideas, or indeed The above may have been written by him.
On the face of it, Manderson might not be natural material for Magga fans. Liberal, internationalist, pro-European, free trade, he in a sense embodies the Republican distaste for Europe.
But the collective mentality of the Trump team — beyond loyalty to its leader — is respect for those who stand their ground, express opinions backed by evidence, and defend the country’s own interests.
If anything, Trump loves strongmen. This was acknowledged by Nigel Farage, one of the few non-Labour politicians to support his appointment.
On the other hand, if Trump betrays someone, it could be fatal. In 2019, Trump effectively forced British Ambassador Sir Kim Darroch to resign, calling him “a very stupid person” after confidential emails came to light that called her administration “clumsy and incompetent.” people”.
Having been dismissed twice, he could not afford a hat-trick.
One diplomat said, “The trick to dealing with Trump is to maintain a balance between respect and flattery. He likes to collect different options.
In future transatlantic debates, Manderson will be able to rely on the trade knowledge he gained while serving as EU commissioner from 2004 to 2008 and as chairman of Gordon Brown’s government’s trade committee from 2008 to 2010. under leadership.
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It is well known that Trump has placed tariffs at the center of his politics, not only as a means to right trade wrongs but also as a lever to secure political advantage.
By contrast, as commissioner, Manderson was an unabashed advocate of free trade. In 2005, he stated: “The European economy will rise or fall based on our ability to keep markets open, open new markets and develop new areas where European inventors, investors, entrepreneurs can trade.”
But delve deeper and you’ll find that Manderson thinks more sharply about the threats of globalization, the growth of the BRICS, and trade in the service of development.
Many of these more technical speeches were ignored by the political class. At the same time, he also mastered the details of trade agreements, including tariffs, regulations and services agreements.
As a result, Manderson has made a series of public criticisms of Trump in the past that he has had to acknowledge and downplay, including describing Trump as a “bully and mercantilist” in 2018.
His views on China also put him closer to the Elon Musk camp than many China hawks in Congress and the administration.
But Manderson wasn’t just hired as a trade lover; His biggest task will be to predict, guide and influence the Trump administration’s attitude towards bilateral issues such as China, Ukraine, Israel and Iran, as well as the Chagos Islands, and always try to keep pace with other Western powers.
He reads people, or as he puts it, “I read people,” often making summary judgments about character and motivation.
In a sense this appointment is undoubtedly the last in his remarkable checkered career and his first role back in Tony Blair’s leadership – as the man responsible for solving problems.
But this skill now faces its greatest challenge.
Trump’s modus operandi is to destabilize his opponents by placing unpredictability at the center of his statecraft.
The test of Manderson’s success at the end of four years may well be whether he helps Britain avoid the big choice it has been trying to avoid since World War II – between an isolationist America and a multilateral Europe.