The recent assembly elections in Haryana and Jammu and Kashmir have once again raised question marks over the reliability of exit poll forecasts. Some claim that Electronic Voting Machines (EVMs) are not foolproof or that the Election Commission of India (ECI) and mainstream media support the adjudication system. The latest round of the YouGov-Mint-CPR Millennium Survey found that urban Indians are deeply divided along party lines on a number of issues concerning the country’s electoral politics.
The survey, conducted in July 2024, weeks after the Lok Sabha election results, found that those leaning towards the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) had a more positive outlook on these major issues, while those leaning towards the Congress Supporters are skeptical.
This is the 12th round of our semi-annual survey, with 10,314 respondents in more than 200 cities and towns. The surveys are conducted by Mint with survey partners YouGov India and Delhi-based think tank Center for Policy Research. The surveys, conducted since 2018, reveal the beliefs, choices and anxieties of young people in urban India.
In the latest round of surveys, 45% of respondents were post-millennials (born after 1996) and 39% were millennials (born between 1981 and 1996). About 46% said the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) was their favorite party, while 15% also said the Congress was their favorite.
Urgent problems
Is the poll panel performing well in conducting the 2024 Lok Sabha elections in a free and fair manner? Nearly three-fifths (58%) of respondents rated it positively, while 42% felt it was not enough. Supporters of the BJP were the most satisfied, with 67% approving of the ECI’s actions, compared with only 46% of Congress supporters. Among those who support other political parties or do not identify with any political party, 53% are satisfied.
A larger share (61%) supports the continued use of EVMs and believes the tampering accusations are unfounded. The remainder favored a paper voting system because they believed it would be more foolproof. Opinions on the EVM again vary by political affiliation – with BJP supporters being the most positive (71%), compared with only 46% of Congress supporters. Among them, a majority favored the use of EVMs instead of paper ballots.
Did the media give favorable coverage to the BJP during the campaign, or fair coverage to all parties? Respondents were again divided: 54% believed the media was biased in favor of the BJP, while 46% believed media coverage was fair to all. Interestingly, 47% of BJP supporters believe the media is biased in favor of their party and 53% say media coverage is fair. Conversely, 64% of Congress supporters believe the media is biased; the same sentiment is shared by supporters of other parties (60%) and non-identifiers (57%).
Are exit polls reliable?
Public opinion is divided over the integrity of exit poll predictions, with 46% believing predictions for the 2024 election were fraudulent and smacked of a scam, as Congress alleged shortly after the results were announced. Others said the exit polls could be wrong but that the fraud accusations were unfounded. Among BJP supporters, three-fifths (60%) believed the exit polls and rejected accusations of fraud. But 56% of congressional supporters believed the exit polls were fraudulent. Surveys show that trust in exit polls is closely related to party loyalty, with supporters of the BJP showing greater trust in its legitimacy.
Opinions differ on the frequency of elections and the simultaneous holding of state and national elections. Overall, a third of respondents (33%) believe holding multiple election cycles is a waste of money and time, while another third (34%) say the current situation of staggered elections strengthens democracy. Meanwhile, 19% expressed concerns that the move could cause problems, while the remainder (14%) were unfamiliar with the proposals. The cabinet recently approved the idea based on the recommendations of a panel headed by former president Ram Nath Kovind.
Older respondents are more likely to believe that multiple elections are wasteful, while post-millennials are more likely to believe that different election cycles strengthen democracy. Political affiliation also plays a role: 41% of BJP supporters believe multiple election cycles are a waste of resources, while only 24% of Congress supporters are more likely to support staggered elections (39%).
Surveys show that views on election issues are increasingly shaped by partisanship. BJP supporters generally show greater trust in the ECI, EVM and exit polls and are more likely to believe media coverage is fair. In contrast, supporters of the Congress and smaller parties tend to feel apprehensive and perceive bias. There are differences of opinion on the issue of holding simultaneous elections, but there is general agreement on expectations for a coalition government arrangement.
(The author is associated with the Center for Policy Studies, New Delhi)
(This is the second part in a series on the Round 12 survey results. The first part looks at the impact of the 2024 elections on political preferences. Note that these surveys are skewed towards urban, affluent netizens, with 90% of respondents falling into the NCCS-A Socioeconomic categories of consumers. Full method description available here.)
In the chart: How the BJP pulled off a hat-trick in a bitter battle with the Congress