Mexico City— The election of Donald Trump, whose campaign featured inflammatory proposals on tariffs, immigration and a crackdown on drug trafficking, is sending shockwaves through Mexico, a country with close economic, social and cultural ties to its northern neighbor.
The president-elect has vowed to impose steep tariffs on goods imported from Mexico (up to 100% or more on vehicles), posing a huge threat to a country that relies heavily on trade with the United States.
“This is a disaster,” Juan Carlos Moreno-Bride, an economics professor at the National Autonomous University of Mexico, said of Trump’s election. “I mean, it couldn’t be worse.”
Moreno-Bride said that the Mexican economy is almost entirely driven by trade, with more than 80% of exports shipped north of the border. After years of sluggish growth, the Mexican economy is already on the verge of recession.
This summer, Donald Trump toured the border wall in Sierra Vista, Arizona, with National Border Patrol Council Chairman Paul Perez. Trump has vowed to deport millions of immigrants in the United States illegally, many of them Mexican nationals.
(Evan Vucci/AP)
The peso fell to a two-year low against the dollar on Wednesday on worries that Trump will follow through on his tariff announcement.
“We should take Trump’s threats and promises seriously,” Martha Bárcena, Mexico’s former ambassador to Washington, wrote on social media platform X on Wednesday. “This is not just campaign rhetoric.”
Economists warn that even a small increase in tariffs on Mexican goods could lead to more unemployment and poverty and could lead to more immigration to the United States.
“We are already in a very vulnerable moment. Now Trump is coming to attack us again,” Moreno-Breed said. “We really, really don’t need this.”
The landmark United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement – which replaced NAFTA during Trump’s first administration – is up for review in 2026. Clear, but this multi-trillion dollar deal is critical to the Mexican economy.
Then-President Trump sits between Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau (right) and then-Mexican President Enrique Peña Nieto as they signed the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement in 2018.
(Associated Press)
Many in Mexico hope that once Trump takes office, his actions will be less harsh than his campaign rhetoric. Eight years ago, Trump campaigned on denouncing Mexican immigrants as criminals and “rapists,” but he later distanced himself from them when leftist Andres Manuel López Obrador was elected president. A close working relationship was established with the leftists. The two men called each other friends.
Mexico’s new president, Claudia Scheinbaum, sought to downplay concerns on Wednesday. “There is no reason to worry,” López Obrador’s successor Sheinbaum told reporters. “There will be conversations.”
Experts say the two countries’ supply chains are closely integrated, which could thwart Trump’s provocative tariff plans. U.S. companies have ownership control or other financial stakes in many Mexican manufacturing businesses.
“In economic matters, pragmatism dominates U.S. interests,” columnist Kimberly Armengol wrote in Mexico’s Excélsior newspaper on Wednesday. “U.S. interests in Mexico transcend partisan differences.”
Two-way trade between the United States and Mexico exceeded $800 billion last year, according to U.S. data, making Mexico the United States’ main trading partner.
Cars cross the Paso del Norte International Bridge on the U.S.-Mexico border from Ciudad Juarez, Mexico, on Wednesday.
(Christian Chavez/AP)
“We will continue to work in a very important way with Mexico and U.S. business leaders with investments in Mexico,” Scheinbaum said. “In this case, there are no divisions – instead, there is a lot of unity to strengthen the national economy.”
Trump said tariffs would also be part of his strategy to combat drug trafficking.
“We’re going to stop the flow of drugs coming to our border immediately,” Trump told a crowd in Pittsburgh on Monday. “Every damn thing they sell into the United States is going to be about 25 percent [tariff]until they stopped the drugs from getting in.
Trump also raised the possibility of deploying U.S. troops to fight Mexican drug cartels — an idea that has been widely rejected in a country that has historically suffered repeated invasions from the north. Many Mexicans do not take the idea of a military deployment seriously.
“He’s just saying it to make noise,” Mexico City bookseller Alejandro Vázquez said when asked about Trump’s plans. “This is a publicity stunt.”
On immigration, Trump has made it clear that he will take action to limit immigration pathways, possibly eliminating the CBP One smartphone app. The program has allowed more than 800,000 asylum seekers from around the world to enter the United States with temporary status after being interviewed at U.S. border posts.
The new Trump administration may also cut back on Biden’s humanitarian parole program for citizens of Cuba, Haiti, Nicaragua and Venezuela, as well as a program that allows Central American children to seek refugee status in the United States. Isaacson said.
Trump may also use the threat of tariffs to revive the “Remain in Mexico” program, which requires asylum seekers to remain in Mexico until they appear in U.S. immigration court.
Some observers predict a surge in immigration in the coming months. This week, more than 2,000 migrants started a “caravan” heading north from the southern Mexican city of Tapachula.
“We expect immigration numbers to increase in the coming months as people seek to enter U.S. soil before the new administration begins closing existing pathways,” Isaacson said.
Migrants left Tapachula, Mexico, on Tuesday in hopes of reaching the country’s northern border and eventually the United States.
(Moises Castillo/AP)
Meanwhile, many Mexicans are worried about Trump’s vow to deport millions of illegal immigrants, many of them Mexican nationals.
“Trump can do whatever he wants now. He has all the support he needs,” said Irineo Mujica, director of the immigration advocacy group Men Without Borders. “Before Trump takes office, immigrants will be rushing to the border.”
In addition to the humanitarian toll, mass deportations could devastate the Mexican economy: Every year, U.S. migrants send about $60 billion to relatives and others in Mexico. These remittances are the backbone of the Mexican economy.
“He can’t send all the Mexicans back from the United States, can he?” asked Amy Perez, a street vendor in the capital. “If there are no Mexicans, who will do all the jobs in the United States?”
Special correspondent Cecilia Sanchez Vidal contributed to this report.
