Today’s stock market – The beautiful metal index in one month has achieved a nearly 9% growth effect over the Nifty-50 index, losing nearly 4% over the same period. According to analysts, the Indian government’s expectations of the Indian government’s expected demand for China and benchmark prices is that demand for aluminum is stable despite many concerns about Trump’s tariffs and trade wars.
Jefferies India Pvt Ltd is still constructive in the metals industry. According to Jefferies analysts, the Asian steel difference is still below 20% of the long-term average and has an extended range. Indian steel prices rose 5% from the December lows, and any guarantee tax could provide further support to improve profit margins and valuations. They remained positive for the buy ratings of metals and Tata Steel.
Four key reasons
1. Performance over the players during calendar year ending calendar period –
Metal stocks such as Hindalco Industries Ltd, Tata Steel Ltd and JSW Steel have outperformed the Nifty-50, and so far, India’s expectations for steel security tax and good aluminum prices due to optimism about China’s recovery. Chris Wood, global strategist at Jefferies, believes that China’s residential property market may have bottomed out as data on secondary real estate markets continue to improve in major Chinese cities. Second-tier housing prices in China’s first-tier cities rose by 0.18% in the month of January 2025, the fourth consecutive month of increase
2. The mild steel edge may recover, while the aluminum edge is firm Prices of aluminum rose 7% worldwide for calendar years, surpassing the decline of Chinese steel by 3%.
Despite the net defects in the country’s basic aluminum, China’s steel exports in 2024 were the largest in a decade.
The total steel conversion difference in Asia is about 20% lower than the long-term average and is likely to rise, especially if the Chinese real estate market begins to rebound.
3. Guarantee responsibilities can increase the price of Indian steel: India corrected 15% of the price of local hot coil (flat bottom) steel in India between June and December, and has since recovered 5% from its lowest point, currently 3% higher than the premium imported from China. India continues to import large amounts of steel, and any safeguards for China’s imports can support prices.
According to Jefferies, an increase in steel prices of Rs 1,000 may increase the EBITDA for Tata Steel and JSW Steel is estimated at 7% and 9% EBITDA, respectively, and according to Jefferies, EPS per share is estimated to increase by 17% and 23% respectively for fiscal 26, assuming everything else remains the same.
4. Stay constructive in the department: Jefferies said: “We maintain a constructive stance on Indian metals and buy it on Hindalco and Tata Steel. For JSW Steel
India India Aluminum business delivers well, with global aluminum prices rising (aluminum price is $2,708, and Atonne and Jefferies Fy26-27 assumptions are $2,600-2,650). The attention to the novel is also eased
Disclaimer: The opinions and suggestions given in this article are those of individual analysts. These do not represent the mint’s point of view. We recommend that investors contact certified experts before making any investment decisions.
